WHAT IS THE DELIVERY RATE THUS FAR THIS SEASONLuan van der Walt, Economist, Grain SA
» The 2016/17 production season started with somewhat mixed successes and everyone looked forward to the new season with great anticipation. In some parts of the country the rain came early enough and producers could start planting early. In other parts the rain came only later and the plantings were a little later than normal. Serious wind damage also forced many producers – more specifically in the western parts of the country - to replant some fields, resulting in questions with regards to the production outlook.
However, the hope did not disappoint, and also proven through the expected record harvest for the season. According to the CEC’s 3rd crop estimate for the season, white maize production is estimated at 8,618 million tons and the yellow maize crop at 5,917 million tons. This brings the total expected harvest to 14.536 million tons, which is the largest production in SA's history (2nd record = 1980/81 - 14,423 million tons).
In those areas where producers have already started harvesting, good yields are reported and producers are generally very satisfied with the productions hitherto harvested. These good returns are also clearly reflected in the producer deliveries reported weekly by SAGIS.
Delivery rates
Producer deliveries for the season is progressing well thus far and delivery rates are accelerating rapidly. Maize delivered in March and April 2017 is regarded as early deliveries. The delivery of both white and yellow maize happened swiftly in early March, with large quantities of white maize specifically delivered. Graphs 1 and 2 indicate producer deliveries from week 44 of the 2016/17 marketing year to week 3 of the 2017/18 marketing year, versus the average of the previous 6 seasons of white and yellow maize respectively. This gives both a good indication and comparison between the deliveries of this season versus the deliveries of previous seasons.
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Figure 1: Cumulative WM deliveries for 2017/18 season versus average deliveries of 2011/12 - 2016/17 season
Source: SAGIS
* Week 44 - 52 are early deliveries (March 1 - April 30) Week 1 - 3 are deliveries in May. |
Figure 1 clearly indicate the significantly faster delivery rate of the new season white maize compared with the previous 6-year average. The maize currently being harvested is looking good with favourable productions and the expectation is that the delivery rate will increase in the next few weeks as harvesting becomes more widespread.
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Figure 2: Cumulative YM deliveries for 2017/18 season versus average deliveries of 2011/12 - 2016/17 season.
Source: SAGIS
* Week 44 - 52 are early deliveries (March 1 - April 30) Week 1 - 3 are deliveries in May. |
Figure 2 indicate yellow maize deliveries for the new season maize, have been slightly below the comparative average rate of the past few years. Producers generally planted more early white maize this season due to the large early monthly price differences (March 2017) between white and yellow maize.
Figure 3 shows the current delivery rate of total maize to date compared with previous years. Figure 3 clearly indicate that supplies for the season thus far are reasonably in line with previous years' deliveries to date. The total maize yield as a percentage of the 3rd production forecast of the CEC is 11.5%.
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Figure 3: Total maize deliveries to date compared to previous marketing years.
Source: SAGIS |
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